Luck and Accidents
Every time a character works a camp station, the game rolls two separate checks: one for a lucky outcome (a bonus) and one for an accident (a penalty). This page explains the exact chance of each, how station wear and character states change it, and why Omar is a walking workplace hazard.
When can it happen
Neither outcome can trigger before day 3. From day 3 onward, every work action on a station does a single random roll from 0 to 100 and checks it against both ends: an Accident on the low end, Luck on the high end, and a dead middle where nothing happens. Since realistic Accident and Luck chances never add up past 100, the two never happen on the same action: the outcome is always exactly one of Accident, Luck, or Neither.
Accident chance
The chance that a work action results in an accident is the sum of six things:
- A base fail rate from the station's Condition gauge.
- A state modifier for each of the character's five states (Hunger, Fatigue, Sickness, Injury, Depression).
- A flat +10 penalty if Omar is the one doing the work (from his negative historic trait).
Base fail rate by station Condition
Condition here is the station's wear gauge: 0 is a brand-new station, 100 is a broken one.
| Station Condition | Base Accident chance |
|---|---|
| 0 to 25 | 0% |
| 26 to 50 | +3% |
| 51 to 75 | +7% |
| 76 to 100 | +10% |
State modifiers
Each of the five character states contributes a small modifier based on how bad it is. The modifiers from all five states add up.
| State value | Added to Accident chance (per state) |
|---|---|
| 0 to 25 | +0% |
| 26 to 50 | +1% |
| 51 to 75 | +2% |
| 76 to 100 | +3% |
A perfectly healthy character (all states at 0) contributes +0%. A completely worn-out character (all five states above 75) contributes +15%.
Omar's penalty
Omar's negative historic trait adds a flat +10% to the accident chance whenever he is the one working a station. The penalty is always on, it does not depend on his state or the station's condition.
Worst-case ceiling
Maximum accident chance is 25% for a regular character (broken station + all states above 75), or 35% if Omar is working it.
Worked example
Omar is working a station with Condition 80. His states are: Hunger 60, Fatigue 40, Sickness 0, Injury 0, Depression 80.
- Condition 80 → +10% base fail.
- Hunger 60 (51 to 75 tier) → +2%.
- Fatigue 40 (26 to 50 tier) → +1%.
- Sickness 0 → +0%.
- Injury 0 → +0%.
- Depression 80 (above 75) → +3%.
- Omar penalty → +10%.
- Total: 26% chance of accident.
Luck chance
Luck is much simpler than accidents. The base chance is a flat 5% for every work action, regardless of the station's Condition. Two things can push it higher:
- Any character trait or item that grants a "Lucky Up" bonus adds to the chance directly. These bonuses stack.
- Pairing two characters on the same station adds the partner's crit chance gain, which comes from their traits and items.
If neither condition applies, every work action has exactly 5% luck chance.